Aécio Internacional ( Londres)

02.04.09 Brazil Focus Aécio Neves lobbies for primaries to be held by PSDB
Minas Gerais governor Aécio Neves (PSDB-MG), a pre-candidate within his party for the presidential nomination in 2010, is lobbying for primaries to be held by PSDB.
His potential contender for the nomination, São Paulo governor José Serra (PSDB-SP), initially opposed them, feeling sure that he has better a chance than does Neves to run against whomever Lula chooses – presumably Dilma Rousseff (PT-RS) – to succeed himself. Rousseff, already in full if unofficial campaign mode, is gaining nationwide exposure under Lula's tutelage.
On 16 February, Governor Neves, addressing the second national meeting of the judiciary in Belo Horizonte, began to sound presidential. He advocated the use at the federal level of the 'management shock' and structural reforms he had successfully implemented in Minas Gerais. As well, he called for new models of planning, organisation, and management in all three branches of government.
Governor Serra eventually said that he accepts primaries within PSDB, a novelty for the party. Neves is on record as rejecting the position of vice-president on Serra's ticket should he lose the primaries, asserting that another party should be offered that position in order to strengthen a coalition headed by PSDB.
Dithering and debate
Neves also firmly denied any intention of joining PMDB to become that party's presidential candidate, contrary to rumours. There is clearly an impasse, as Serra for now seems to have control over his party's machine; if indeed the primaries are held and Neves should lose them, his alternative would be to run for the Senate in 2010, and from that perch bid for the presidency in the following elections, in 2014.
Former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso favours a 'pure-blood' ticket with Serra and Neves but that prospect no longer seems viable.
PSDB leaders are aware that the party has lost a great deal of time arguing back and forth about its primaries while Dilma Rousseff's candidacy has been gaining ground. Accordingly, PSDB is now trying to develop an agenda to confront Lula's charisma and seemingly inexhaustible (and rising!) popularity.
PSDB brings together some of Brazil's most brilliant intelligentsia, but it is popular appeal, not cerebral rhetoric or even good governance such as that of Governors Serra and Neves, that wins elections.
Seeking an effective agenda
Nevertheless, the opposition's agenda will focus on two features of Lula's government: the politicisation of Petrobras and growing unemployment. These may be non-starters. The public at large couldn't care less about the productivity of Petrobras, and as for unemploy¬ment, it can be explained away, as Lula has been doing, by blaming the wealthy nations for the crisis.
The opposition must find better ammunition to attack Lula and PT, but it has been found that the electorate simply does not believe the evidence of wholesale political corruption. Also, the PSDB–DEM–PPS coalition should provide a vision for the future of the country, not dwell on the shortcomings of the past.
The presidential election of 2010 will be very tough indeed. Holding primaries within the party may be dangerous for the unity of PSDB. For instance, when the party had to choose a leader for its delegation in the Chamber of Deputies, it did so splitting, 39 x 16, to re-elect José Anibal (PSDB-SP).Even if Serra's former opponent, ex-São Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin, has been politically neutralised by accepting a position as secretary for development in Serra's Cabinet – he may be aspiring to a senatorial seat in the 2010 election – PSDB has a long tradition of indecisiveness that has already cost it several elections.
This story featured in the March issue of Brazil Focus. For more information, or to request a full sample issue, contact info@menas.co.uk